Stock overview
| Ticker | Spicejet |
| Sector | Aviation |
| Market Cap | ₹ 6,500 Cr |
| CMP (Current Market Price) | ₹ 53 |
| 52-Week High/Low | ₹ 80 / 40 |
| P/E Ratio | NA |
| Beta | 1.2 (Moderate volatility) |
About Spicejet
SpiceJet is one of India’s oldest low-cost carriers (LCCs), founded in 2005. The airline operates domestic and international routes, primarily focusing on cost efficiency, competitive pricing, and Tier-II city connectivity. Known for aggressive pricing, SpiceJet has faced multiple operational and financial crises but continues to survive through restructuring, government support, and capital infusions.
- Fleet Size: 64 operational aircraft (as of FY24)
- Business Segments: Passenger, Cargo (SpiceXpress), Charter Services
- Key Hubs: Delhi, Hyderabad, Mumbai, Bengaluru
Primary growth factors for Spicejet
1. Turnaround potential post-fundraise
- Infusion of ₹2,250 Cr has stabilised operations.
- Fresh leasing of grounded planes and improved punctuality expected in FY26.
2. SpiceXpress – Cargo Growth Engine
- Strong growth in B2B express logistics and pharma shipments.
- Demerger offers SpiceJet a future value-unlocking opportunity.
3. Regional Expansion under UDAN
- Government subsidies and support for Tier-II/III connectivity.
- SpiceJet has one of the largest UDAN route portfolios.
4. Improved load factors
- Maintained PLFs (Passenger Load Factor) above 85% for 12 consecutive months.
- Better fleet utilisation helps profitability.
Q3 FY25 Financial Performance
| Metric | Q3 FY 25 | YoY Growth | QoQ Growth |
| ASKM | 2497 mn | -35% | 18% |
| Revenue | 16,507 mn | -23% | 53% |
| Expenses | 16,244 mn | -34% | 53% |
| PAT | 263 mn | 109% | 106% |
- SpiceJet has been suffering from inconsistent revenue growth over the past few quarters. Their YoY metrics have shown significant de-growth both on the revenue front and on operational metrics such as ASK (Available seat kilometres).
- While they are back to profitability, Spicejet needs to deliver a consistent path to profitability, especially when the aviation landscape is getting increasingly competitive.
- Indigo has been gaining market share over the past few quarters as Spicejet continues to suffer from operational challenges.
- Investors should watch out for any fundraising efforts by the company and the promoter holding in the company.
Detailed competition analysis for SpiceJet
| Company | Market Share | Market Cap | Revenue | P/E | RoCE |
| SpiceJet | 3% | 6,500 cr | ₹ 1,650 cr | Negative | 1.6% |
| Indigo | 63% | 1,73,948 cr | ₹ 22,992 cr | 26.8x | 24.5% |
| Air India | 18% | Not Listed | ₹ 5,109 cr | Not Listed | Not Listed |
- Indigo is the market leader in the Indian aviation space with a market share of 63%. Spicejet lags considerably from the low-cost airline on revenue, cost, ASK and number of customers served.
- Financial instability and operational challenges continue to affect Spicejet’s performance and business outlook
- Spicejet is trading at a reasonable valuation relative to peers, but it needs to deliver on business performance to garner investor confidence.
Company valuation insights: SpiceJet
As per the Discounted Cash Flow analysis:
It estimates the intrinsic value of Spicejet shares based on expected future cash flows:
- Intrinsic Value Estimate: ₹45 per share
- Upside Potential: -10%
- WACC: 9.8%
- Terminal Growth Rate: –0.8%
Major risk factors affecting SpiceJet
- High debt & negative net worth
- Still burdened with over ₹5,000 Cr in liabilities.
- Balance sheet remains highly fragile.
2. Intense competition
- Struggles to match the scale and efficiency of IndiGo.
- New entrants like Akasa are adding pricing pressure.
3. Regulatory & safety oversight
- DGCA had earlier flagged operational lapses.
- Any future incidents may dent brand trust.
4. Fuel and currency risks
- A spike in ATF prices or rupee depreciation could again derail cost structures.
5. Execution risk of the revival plan
- The plan depends on sustained performance and disciplined cost control.
Technical analysis of Spicejet
- Resistance: ₹59
- Support: ₹43
- Momentum: Neutral, Bearish
- RSI (Relative Strength Index): 48 (Neutral)
- 50-Day Moving Average: ₹48
- 200-Day Moving Average: ₹34
Spicejet stock recommendation by Ketan Mittal
Recommendation: Avoid/Reduce/Sell on any rally
Target Price: ₹45 (12-month horizon)
Rationale
SpiceJet is a classic deep value turnaround play in the aviation space. While it is still in a fragile position, the airline has executed a much-needed fundraise, stabilised operations, and has tailwinds in domestic aviation. Its optionality in the form of SpiceXpress, regional route dominance, and improved operating metrics give it a strong bounce-back potential. The stock has moved up sharply from its lows but remains undervalued if the turnaround sustains.If you found this helpful and want regular stock trade calls, check out my StockGro profile here: https://stockgro.onelink.me/vNON/6m6ykj0dConclusion
SpiceJet remains a high-risk, high-reward bet for investors willing to stomach volatility. Its near-term fortunes rest on management execution, continued operational improvements, and cargo division monetisation.
