What is the Elliott Wave Theory and How It Predicts Market Trends?

The Elliott Wave Theory is a form of technical analysis that investors use to predict future market trends by analysing historicals

In this article, we’re going to understand in-depth what technical analysis is, why it works, and how the Elliott wave theory is linked to its origins.

The history of the Elliott wave theory

Developed by Ralph Nelson Elliott in the 1930s, the theory postulates that financial markets follow a certain trend over time, and that this trend tends to repeat in regular intervals.

Elliott wave theory says that market psychology, or the psychology of investors with respect to the market, moves from pessimism to optimism and back again, in a repeating sequence. Elliott further explained that these swings, reflected in wave-like patterns on a chart, could be replicated and used to generate profits.

The key elements of the Elliott wave theory

Here are some key characteristics of the theory that will help you understand it better:

The five-wave and three-wave patterns

The theory suggests that the overall upward or downward trend in a security’s price unfolds in a five-wave structure called the motive wave. Within this motive wave, every sub-wave represents a different kind or phase of investor sentiment.

• Wave 1: Impulse wave (beginning of the trend)
• Wave 2: Corrective wave (pullback after the initial rise)
• Wave 3: Strongest and most impulsive wave (heart of the trend)
• Wave 4: Corrective wave (smaller pullback before the final push)
• Wave 5: Final wave completing the trend

Following this pattern, there’s a corrective action that occurs in the price, which is represented by waves A, B, and C.

This signifies the ending of one wave and the beginning of another.

Fractals and similarity

The Elliott wave theory also posits that these waves are self-similar, meaning that they can be seen throughout the price charts of different securities at different points in time, considering a large-enough horizon.

Analysts can spot these trades on hourly, daily, weekly, and even monthly or yearly charts.

Fibonacci ratios

If you’ve ever been into technical trading, you must have come across a very popular tool called the Fibonacci Retracement Pattern. This is similar to the tool, but not exactly. The Elliott wave theory also incorporates Fibonacci ratios, a mathematical sequence found in nature, to identify highs and lows as well.

These ratios are usually used as a guide, not fact.

Criticisms and considerations of the Elliott wave theory

Here are some considerations you should know before you go off finding your own Elliott waves.

Subjectivity is rampant in this business

Technical analysis is largely subjective, which means that there’s no single, universally accepted method or technique for spotting these waves and labelling them properly. Different analysts could look at the exact same chart and label waves quite differently, which could lead to conflicting predictions of future price performance.

Not only that, Elliott waves can also lead to confirmation bias due to this subjectivity, which means that analysts who are confident but wrong could lose a lot of money.

Could be self-fulfilling

Some experts also think that Elliott waves could be a self-fulfilling prophecy, since analysts could “spot” these waves in the chart and make buying and selling decisions off it. If enough people do this, they could move markets or influence price action as if these waves were actually present, making a shared illusion come true.

Doesn’t take into account fundamentals

Companies don’t trade on technicals alone. In fact, there are much more important metrics that need to be considered when investing in stocks – such as economic data, earnings reports, or industry trends that could drive growth long-term.

Real-world application of Elliott Wave Theory in trading

• Wave Counting: Traders identify and count the waves in price movements, distinguishing between the five-wave impulse and the three-wave corrective patterns.
• Timing Entries and Exits: By recognising where the market is in its cycle, traders can time their entries at the start of a new impulse wave or exit before a reversal begins.
• Setting Stop-Loss and Take-Profit Levels: Wave projections offer logical levels for stop-loss orders and profit targets based on the lengths of previous waves.
• Combining with Other Indicators: To address the subjective nature of wave counts, many traders integrate tools like moving averages, the Relative Strength Index, and Fibonacci retracements to validate signals.
• Risk Management: Understanding market cycles through wave analysis helps traders avoid overtrading and refine their risk management strategies during uncertain phases.

The bottom line: Is Elliott Wave Theory worth using?

Elliott Wave Theory offers a unique way to view market cycles by identifying recurring patterns in price movements. Many traders find it valuable because it helps to predict potential turning points and market trends, which can be crucial for timing entries and exits.

However, its effectiveness can be subjective, and interpretations may vary from one trader to another. In short, while Elliott Wave Theory is worth exploring, it’s best used alongside other technical indicators and sound risk management practices. The theory requires patience and practice to master, and its benefits tend to shine when you complement it with a broader analytical approach.

Frequently Asked Questions