Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL) reported solid earnings for Q3 FY25, yet its share price slipped 2% after the announcement. The company posted a 36.85% year-on-year (YoY) jump in net profit to ₹4,649 crore, but concerns over volatile crude oil prices, weaker refining margins, and market uncertainty dragged its stock down.
So, what’s behind this unusual stock movement? Let’s break it down.
BPCL Q3 FY25 earnings: Key numbers
Here’s a quick look at BPCL’s Q3 FY25 financial performance:
| Metric | Q3 FY25 | Q3 FY24 | QoQ Change |
| Net profit | ₹4,649 crore | ₹3,397.27 crore | Up 36.85% |
| Revenue from operations | ₹1,27,520.50 crore | ₹1,29,946.95 crore | Down 1.87% |
| Gross refining margin (GRM) | $5.95 per barrel | $14.72 per barrel | Declined |
| Interim dividend | ₹5 per share | – | – |
Despite a strong profit surge, BPCL’s revenue dipped slightly, and gross refining margins (GRM) fell significantly compared to last year.
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Why did BPCL shares fall after Q3 results?
Even with positive earnings, BPCL’s share price dropped 2% post-announcement, hitting an intraday low of ₹272.55. Here’s why:
1. Rising crude oil prices impact profitability
Crude oil prices have been on an upward trend, squeezing oil marketing companies (OMCs) like BPCL.
- If fuel retail prices do not increase proportionally, higher crude costs eat into marketing margins.
- A weaker rupee has also made fuel imports more expensive, raising BPCL’s working capital needs.
This uncertainty around BPCL’s future profit margins worried investors.
2. Benchmark refining margins are falling
BPCL’s gross refining margin (GRM) fell to $5.95 per barrel in 9MFY25, compared to $14.72 per barrel in the previous year.
- A temporary shutdown of refineries hurt throughput.
- Lower fuel consumption due to demand slowdown raised concerns.
3. Volatile markets ahead of the Union Budget
With the Union Budget around the corner, investors are cautious about government policies that may impact the oil sector. This uncertainty contributed to BPCL’s stock decline.
BPCL dividend update: What investors need to know
BPCL’s board declared an interim dividend of ₹5 per equity share (face value of ₹10 each).
- Record date: January 29, 2025
- Dividend payment date: Before February 20, 2025
While dividends are usually a positive sign, in this case, investors remained focused on BPCL’s long-term profitability rather than the short-term payout.
Also read: Indiamart Q3 2025 Results: Strong Profit Growth of 47.87% YoY
Brokerage views: Mixed reactions on BPCL’s stock
Despite the share price dip, brokerages are divided on BPCL’s outlook.
| Brokerage | Rating | Target Price (₹) |
| Jefferies | Buy | 370 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | 419 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | 417 |
| Citi | Buy | 390 |
| Nomura | Buy | 380 |
| Macquarie | Neutral | 315 |
| Investec | Sell | 250 |
Key Takeaways from Analyst Reports:
- Jefferies cut its target price from ₹410 to ₹370, citing short-term concerns but a favourable long-term outlook.
- Investec maintained a sell rating, highlighting inventory losses and uncertainty in refining margins.
- Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan remain bullish, expecting refining margins to improve in the coming quarters.
BPCL’s long-term strategy: Expanding into biofuels
BPCL is diversifying beyond traditional oil refining and has partnered with GAIL and Chhattisgarh Biofuel Development Authority to produce compressed biogas (CBG) from urban solid waste.
- BPCL will set up plants in Bilaspur, Dhamtari, and Rajnandgaon with a ₹600 crore investment.
- This could generate ₹6 crore annually in GST revenue for the state.
With clean energy gaining traction, BPCL’s focus on biofuels is a positive long-term move.
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Conclusion: What’s next for BPCL stock?
BPCL’s Q3 FY25 results were strong, but concerns over volatile crude prices, falling refining margins, and market uncertainty dragged its stock down.
Should investors worry? Not necessarily.
- Short term: Stock volatility may persist due to oil price fluctuations and policy uncertainties.
- Long term: BPCL’s biofuel expansion, potential government support, and improving refining margins could drive future growth.
For now, investors should keep an eye on crude oil trends and upcoming policy announcements before making investment decisions.
What do you think? Will BPCL’s stock bounce back, or are tougher times ahead? Let us know your thoughts!
