Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd (RVNL) witnessed a sharp 7% decline in its share price after reporting a weaker-than-expected performance for the third quarter of FY25. The railway PSU’s earnings disappointed investors, leading to a bearish sentiment in the stock market. Let’s break down the numbers and understand what this means for investors.
RVNL share price movement
On Monday, February 17, 2025, RVNL’s share price opened at ₹336.25, a 6.6% decline from the previous close. The stock further dropped to an intraday low of ₹333.60, marking a total decline of more than 7%.
The stock had previously hit an all-time high of ₹647, but since then, it has been on a downtrend, losing nearly 37% over the past six months. Despite this, the stock has still delivered a 415% return over the last two years, reflecting its long-term potential.
Also read: Reliance Infra Q3 Results Postponed – Stock News & Updates
RVNL Q3 financial results
RVNL’s Q3 FY25 results were underwhelming, showing a decline across key financial metrics:
| Financial Metric | Q3 FY25 | Q3 FY24 | Change (%) |
| Net Profit | ₹311.58 crore | ₹358.57 crore | -13.1% |
| Revenue from Operations | ₹4,567.38 crore | ₹4,689.33 crore | -2.6% |
| EBITDA | ₹239.4 crore | ₹249 crore | -3.9% |
| EBITDA Margin | 5.2% | 5.3% | Flat |
| Profit Before Tax (PBT) | ₹412.90 crore | ₹462.55 crore | -10.7% |
The company’s total expenses fell by 2.27% to ₹4,480.08 crore, but this was not enough to offset the revenue decline.
For the nine months ending December 31, 2024, the company reported:
- Net profit: ₹822.41 crore (-24.96% YoY)
- Revenue: ₹13,496.14 crore (-11.06% YoY)
What do analysts say about RVNL?
Despite its past gains, analysts remain cautious on RVNL. As per Trendlyne data:
- The average target price for RVNL shares is ₹357, indicating a potential downside of 1%.
- The consensus recommendation from two analysts is a ‘Sell’ rating.
Technical indicators suggest a bearish trend
RVNL’s technical indicators paint a bleak picture:
| Indicator | Value | Interpretation |
| Relative Strength Index (RSI) | 37.3 | Close to oversold (Below 30 = oversold, Above 70 = overbought) |
| MACD | -7.8 | Below signal and center line (Strong bearish trend) |
| Moving Averages | Below 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, 30-day, 50-day, 100-day, 150-day, and 200-day SMAs | Indicates downward momentum |
What’s next for RVNL?
While RVNL’s Q3 numbers were disappointing, the company continues to secure new projects. On February 10, 2025, RVNL was declared the Lowest Bidder (L1) for a South Western Railway project. Additionally, it recently received a Letter of Acceptance from East Coast Railway for a railway doubling project between Tikiri and Bhalumaska stations.
RVNL plays a key role in railway infrastructure projects, including:
- New railway lines
- Doubling and tripling of tracks
- Railway electrification
- Metro projects and station modernization
However, the stock’s recent decline can also be linked to lower-than-expected government capital expenditure (capex) allocations in Budget 2025, which impacted railway sector stocks broadly.
You may also read: Manappuram Finance Share News and Q3 Results
Should investors buy, hold, or sell?
RVNL has been a multi-bagger over the past two years, but its recent performance raises concerns. The stock is in a bearish phase, with key technical indicators suggesting further downside. While its long-term growth story remains intact, short-term challenges persist.
RVNL remains a crucial player in India’s railway infrastructure, but short-term headwinds may continue to pressure the stock. Investors should keep a close watch on upcoming earnings and government policies before making investment decisions.
