Not too long ago, silver was seen as the lesser-loved cousin of gold. But things are changing quickly—and the numbers are telling a strong story.
Silver has surged 41% since December 2022, clearly outperforming the Nifty 50, which gained 26% during the same period. And now, analysts are buzzing with a bold prediction: silver could hit ₹1.17 lakh per kg in the next 12 months.
But is it just market noise, or is there real steam behind this rally? Let’s break it down.
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Why experts believe silver price may hit ₹1.17 lakh/kg
Multiple factors are fuelling the optimism around silver prices. Here’s a deeper look:
1. Industrial demand is booming
Silver isn’t just an investment metal—it’s a key industrial input.
- Around 60% of silver’s demand comes from industries—especially electronics, solar panels, and electric vehicle (EV) batteries.
- With more countries pushing for green energy and EV adoption, silver demand is expected to grow even more.
- The global demand in CY24 is estimated at 1,219 million ounces, while supply lags behind at 1,004 million ounces. That’s a 215 million ounce deficit.
2. Interest rates are cooling down
- US interest rates are expected to decline gradually through 2025.
- Lower rates usually boost demand for precious metals like silver, which don’t earn interest but gain value as safe-haven assets.
- Analysts say this is a key macro driver that could push silver prices higher.
3. Geopolitical uncertainty and trade policies
- Global geopolitical tension and policy changes under the Trump administration could spark a move towards safe-haven assets like silver.
- Historically, uncertain times often lead to stronger silver price performance.
What the technical charts are saying
Silver’s recent movement also aligns with strong technical indicators:
| Technical Indicator | Observation |
| Silver-to-Gold Ratio | Near multi-decade low of 1.11% — room for silver to catch up |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | Forming a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern, expected to drop to 100 |
| Silver Price Momentum | Trying to breach US$ 33, next levels projected: US$ 36.60, 38.70, 39.30 |
| Gold-Silver Price Ratio | Currently at 90; the historical average is 50–70, indicating silver is undervalued |
Greed and fear cycles: Where silver stands now
- According to SAMCO Securities, silver operates in a 28-month cycle of “greed” and “fear.”
- We are currently in the greed phase (Jan 2023 – Apr 2025), where average historical returns have been 108%.
- This suggests there’s still room for further gains—even if the recent rally seems substantial.
5 strong reasons silver may continue its rally
Let’s simplify this into a quick list:
| Supporting Factor | Explanation |
| Weakening US Dollar | Makes silver cheaper globally, increasing the demand |
| Silver-to-Gold Ratio at Lows | Signals silver is undervalued and may rise faster than gold |
| Industrial Demand Boom | Solar panels, EVs, and electronics continue to consume more silver |
| Global Supply Deficit | Demand (1,219 mn oz) outpacing supply (1,004 mn oz) |
| Rising Silver Lease Rates | Leasing rates at 8% indicate a tight supply situation (usually <1%) |
Is there a catch?
While the silver price forecast is exciting, it’s not without its risks:
- Volatility: Silver is prone to sharp price swings. It’s not for long-term traders with low-risk appetite.
- Global disruptions: Policy changes, substitution of silver in industrial use, or easing demand could alter this trajectory.
Where does this leave investors?
If you’re planning a long-term entry, silver might just be at a sweet spot. With prices still 33% below their all-time high of $50 per ounce, there’s room to grow—especially if the macro and industrial tailwinds continue.
And with analysts pointing to ₹1.17 lakh/kg as a realistic 12-month target, it might be time to pay closer attention to the white metal.
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Final thoughts
Silver is no longer just the backup act to gold—it’s building a strong case of its own. Between industrial use, macroeconomic support, technical signals, and global supply shortages, the silver price forecast looks bullish for FY 2025-26.
That said, every investment needs thoughtful planning. Keep an eye on the fundamentals, watch the global cues, and don’t let hype cloud your strategy.
