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Orange juice is a staple breakfast drink that is consumed around the world. Just like any other commodity that’s consumed around the world, orange juice deserves to be traded.
In this article, we’re going to explore how orange juice is traded around the world, and how you can get in on the action.
What is orange juice trading?
Orange juice trading is becoming more and more popular globally and it has progressively attracted more and more market participants. These include farmers, processors, storage houses, market makers, and arbitrageurs.
Derivatives like futures and options are also available for trading orange juice. When trading these derivatives, the commodity that is actually bought and sold is frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ), not the kind you drink in the morning. It’s a bulk product used by beverage companies.
One futures contract is worth 15,000 pounds of concentrated orange juice solids.
Side note: In a nutshell, a futures contract is a legal obligation to buy or sell a commodity at a predetermined price for delivery on a specific date in the future. These contracts are traded on exchanges and are regulated by the same authority.
On the other hand, an options contract is a right, not an obligation, to buy or sell the underlying asset (in this case, orange juice) on the market at a predetermined price at a predetermined date (which is known as the expiry).
The soft commodity market
Soft commodities are increasingly finding a place in investment portfolios as an alternative asset class – just like crypto or art. These are usually agro-driven products that are bought or sold in standardised form.
Other soft commodities include:
- Cotton
- Cocoa
- Coffee
- Rice
- Sugar
- Wheat
What impacts orange juice option valuations?
Orange juice valuations are affected largely by supply and demand – which means they’re affected by weather and disease. Most oranges made for juicing are grown in places like Florida, Mexico, and Brazil. Any major weather events in any one of these regions could significantly impact orange juice production.
Consumption can also have effects on juice prices. An increase in consumption from a country that typically doesn’t consume as much orange juice could boost demand in the short or long-term.
Lastly, governmental policies, labour laws in production areas, and international trade developments can impact orange production and supply.
Reasons for trading orange juice
While there are several reasons to trade commodities (including soft commodities), here are some reasons why you’d want to specifically trade orange juice on the markets:
It’s a bet on global warming
Unusual weather patterns have had such a devastating effect on orange crops in the recent past. These extreme weather events can devastate orange crops in major producing regions. Droughts can stress trees and reduce fruit yield, while hurricanes can physically damage trees and disrupt harvests.
However, note that not all price fluctuations in orange juice are due to global warming. Other factors like disease outbreaks or pest infestations can also affect supply.
Bet on demand from emerging economies
Emerging market countries like China and Russia have not consumed orange juice for as long as Western countries have. These countries have been surprising bright spots in an otherwise bleak picture for orange juice demand.
As emerging market countries grow their economies, their demand for orange juice may increase. Buying orange juice futures may be a way to participate in that demand.
Frequently Asked Questions
Not entirely. Orange juice is an actual, standardised soft commodity traded in real markets. While there’s an element of speculation, options allow you to strategize around price movements. You can profit if the price goes up (call options) or down (put options).
OJ prices can swing wildly due to weather, disease, and global orange production. This volatility can be a double-edged sword – higher risk but potentially higher rewards.
When you buy call options, you’re expecting the price to move up. This happens when demand exceeds supply. Look for situations where a crop freeze, disease outbreak, or other factors might limit supply and drive prices up.
Yes, options are great derivatives frequently used by traders for position hedging. For instance, put options give you the right to sell OJ at a specific price by a certain date. If prices drop, you can exercise the option to lock in a selling price and potentially limit your losses.
Options offer leverage. A small investment in an option can potentially yield a much larger return than buying the physical OJ (if the price goes in your favour). However, the potential loss is also magnified.